Al Gore must be beside himself with joy.He has been the punchline of jokes for months now with global warming being fully exposed as a fraud.He's been getting ambushed for interviews and resorted to throwing critics out of his speeches despite the bad press.
Once in awhile,even when things look their bleakest,you get a gift.Enter the BP oil rig disaster.This has the look of infamy.The reports are now shifting to underestimating the full impact.The Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska is about to get knocked off its throne as the worst environmental disaster in our nations history.
The environmentalists have to be just ecstatic.They needed something huge to get the climategate scandal off the front page and they got it.The White House has already made clear that their recently announced plans for exploratory offshore drilling off the U.S. coast are in jeopardy.
It's too early to tell yet which direction they will go.Do they simply take advantage of the disaster to implement ever greater federal regulation over the oil drilling industry?Or do they go all in and use it to push climate change and replace fossil fuels with green alternatives?
Either way,it will result in higher energy costs for the consumer.Take that to the bank.Obama is already trumpeting that BP will pay for all of the clean-up,even though Transocean operates the rig and was also in charge of the safety measures.This includes the blowout preventer which failed.
The conspiracy theorists are already at full steam ahead trying to tie the Rainbow Warriors to this event.The first lawsuit was already filed just 36 hours after the fire started.The investigations will take years and the insurance payouts probably decades.I've no doubt that BP has been added to Al Gore's Christmas card list.More to come...
Friday, April 30, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
Quest for power
Power.A word with different meanings to different people.To elected officials,it is the ultimate intoxicate.They become subservient to it's draw.An irresistible quest for more.Virtually no one is immune to it in the public sector.It defines them and their actions.It aids us in understanding what motivates these people.
Particularly,these days when we see our elected officials making rash decisions and setting policy that absolutely flies in the face of what their constituents desire.It explains why the person we elected,and possible even knew personally,goes off in another direction once in office.
Today it's Obama.He's merely the current occupant of the throne.His critics,and I am most definitely one of them,tend to underestimate him.Just discount him out of hand as a community organizer who has never held a real job.However,he has a unique set of qualifications to fill a niche.It worked in 2008 and to what extent it can again in 2012 is the $64,000 question.
It is vitally important to understand the role of power as a motivator.The man on the street and the expert alike can be easily confused by events that occur if you don't factor this in.Especially when attempting to decipher the policies of the Obama administration.
It's not the money.While money is no doubt a huge motivator,it's what money brings along with it.Power.Influence.A means to an end.Once you become wealthy and lack for nothing in material goods,people find that empty feeling that money can't fill.Thus the term,money can't buy happiness.I know,people without money say they would still like to die trying,but it's usually true for those with it.
Power is a true lust.A lust in meaning that it can't be fulfilled.There is no lasting value.Once you get it,you always lust for more.An unquenchable desire.There is no lasting satisfaction from obtaining it on a temporary basis.Kind of like pistachios.I mean,who can eat just one?
This is the driver for the Obama agenda.It is behind all of his policies.Everything is designed to create a dependency nation who will perpetually re-elect the same party thus keeping the flow of power going.To those who have studied his influences,it's crystal clear.
It's easy to see when you review his track record.Every major issue has focused on it.I see so many people whether on the street or on tv who discuss what he does and question his motivations.Why would he intentionally make us weaker?Why would he keep spending money we don't have?Why does he focus on this issue when millions of Americans are out of work?
The quest for power answers all these questions.People spend far too much time deciphering the details while leaving out this core driver.Take the stimulus.Maybe you ask why money is going to a seemingly unimportant project that won't create any jobs.But take another look at it.Does it go to reinforce public sector jobs?Union jobs?An environmental cause?
It becomes quite clear at that point.Spend money in areas that will support those who support his party thru financial means or in other ways.If you lose focus on the quest for power,than you find yourself just wondering if he's listening to the wrong advisors or is somehow just misinformed.No,he's doing exactly what he wants to do.
Many people will simply discount an idea like that out of hand.They'll never believe that he could do things that don't have our best interests in mind.Those type of naive people are lost.If you can't keep an open mind,you are doomed to suffer the consequences.
This has nothing to do with race.No big conspiracy theory of Obama meeting in the dead of night with secret societies plotting the takeover of the world.Just an observation of human traits.One of our great weaknesses as a race.We are extremely susceptible to motives of greed,lust and power.
Now look at health care.At the stimulus.At financial reform.At immigration reform.At cap and trade.It all makes perfect sense.All programs designed to make government bigger and stronger and make us more dependent on it with the payoff being that we will remember on election day who did the most for us.
We are more socialist today than we were in 1947 with the New Deal in place.Milton Friedman,the great economist,also holds this position.The New Deal planted a footing,which is still firmly in place,upon which we are building upon now.Government regulation has never in history been higher.There have never been more social programs in place.Both are growing everyday.
This is why I say we seem to underestimate Obama.He knows the best way to accomplish his agenda is by deception.Spend money first,then leave higher taxation as the only alternative to pay for it.Provide government assistance to all for nearly every conceivable reason,knowing that we can't turn away from that assistance later.
Equality for all.Fairness for all.Opportunity for all.Save the planet.All rallying cries that people can't take exception with.If you do,you become an easy mark for ridicule.The thinking has always been that he will over-reach.That he will attempt to grab too much power too quickly and that this will be his downfall.
Don't fool yourself any longer.The quest for power is unquenchable.The lengths that man will go to keep it are extreme.Don't underestimate the threat to your freedom and your way of life.Obama is taking to the highest level yet.He has mastered the art of deception and knows how to play us against each other.While we concentrate on the battles amongst ourselves,he is slowly but surely winning the war.More to come...
Particularly,these days when we see our elected officials making rash decisions and setting policy that absolutely flies in the face of what their constituents desire.It explains why the person we elected,and possible even knew personally,goes off in another direction once in office.
Today it's Obama.He's merely the current occupant of the throne.His critics,and I am most definitely one of them,tend to underestimate him.Just discount him out of hand as a community organizer who has never held a real job.However,he has a unique set of qualifications to fill a niche.It worked in 2008 and to what extent it can again in 2012 is the $64,000 question.
It is vitally important to understand the role of power as a motivator.The man on the street and the expert alike can be easily confused by events that occur if you don't factor this in.Especially when attempting to decipher the policies of the Obama administration.
It's not the money.While money is no doubt a huge motivator,it's what money brings along with it.Power.Influence.A means to an end.Once you become wealthy and lack for nothing in material goods,people find that empty feeling that money can't fill.Thus the term,money can't buy happiness.I know,people without money say they would still like to die trying,but it's usually true for those with it.
Power is a true lust.A lust in meaning that it can't be fulfilled.There is no lasting value.Once you get it,you always lust for more.An unquenchable desire.There is no lasting satisfaction from obtaining it on a temporary basis.Kind of like pistachios.I mean,who can eat just one?
This is the driver for the Obama agenda.It is behind all of his policies.Everything is designed to create a dependency nation who will perpetually re-elect the same party thus keeping the flow of power going.To those who have studied his influences,it's crystal clear.
It's easy to see when you review his track record.Every major issue has focused on it.I see so many people whether on the street or on tv who discuss what he does and question his motivations.Why would he intentionally make us weaker?Why would he keep spending money we don't have?Why does he focus on this issue when millions of Americans are out of work?
The quest for power answers all these questions.People spend far too much time deciphering the details while leaving out this core driver.Take the stimulus.Maybe you ask why money is going to a seemingly unimportant project that won't create any jobs.But take another look at it.Does it go to reinforce public sector jobs?Union jobs?An environmental cause?
It becomes quite clear at that point.Spend money in areas that will support those who support his party thru financial means or in other ways.If you lose focus on the quest for power,than you find yourself just wondering if he's listening to the wrong advisors or is somehow just misinformed.No,he's doing exactly what he wants to do.
Many people will simply discount an idea like that out of hand.They'll never believe that he could do things that don't have our best interests in mind.Those type of naive people are lost.If you can't keep an open mind,you are doomed to suffer the consequences.
This has nothing to do with race.No big conspiracy theory of Obama meeting in the dead of night with secret societies plotting the takeover of the world.Just an observation of human traits.One of our great weaknesses as a race.We are extremely susceptible to motives of greed,lust and power.
Now look at health care.At the stimulus.At financial reform.At immigration reform.At cap and trade.It all makes perfect sense.All programs designed to make government bigger and stronger and make us more dependent on it with the payoff being that we will remember on election day who did the most for us.
We are more socialist today than we were in 1947 with the New Deal in place.Milton Friedman,the great economist,also holds this position.The New Deal planted a footing,which is still firmly in place,upon which we are building upon now.Government regulation has never in history been higher.There have never been more social programs in place.Both are growing everyday.
This is why I say we seem to underestimate Obama.He knows the best way to accomplish his agenda is by deception.Spend money first,then leave higher taxation as the only alternative to pay for it.Provide government assistance to all for nearly every conceivable reason,knowing that we can't turn away from that assistance later.
Equality for all.Fairness for all.Opportunity for all.Save the planet.All rallying cries that people can't take exception with.If you do,you become an easy mark for ridicule.The thinking has always been that he will over-reach.That he will attempt to grab too much power too quickly and that this will be his downfall.
Don't fool yourself any longer.The quest for power is unquenchable.The lengths that man will go to keep it are extreme.Don't underestimate the threat to your freedom and your way of life.Obama is taking to the highest level yet.He has mastered the art of deception and knows how to play us against each other.While we concentrate on the battles amongst ourselves,he is slowly but surely winning the war.More to come...
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Dumb economists
The glass half full or half empty?Which camp are you in?I'm referring to the supposed economic recovery we are experiencing.Most people are getting off the fence of 'I dunno' and taking one side or the other.Either you buy into the green shoots being offered up daily by CNBC business reporting and the White House economic advisors or you see thru the false numbers and are just waiting for the crash.
I am firmly in the latter camp.I don't buy it for a second.Things happen for a reason but unfortunately some of us remain blinded by the power of positive thinking.It just has to get better.America has always come back.We have,by far,the largest and most resilient economy the world has ever seen.Now this is true without a doubt.But it doesn't happen in spite of itself.
Economists should all be forced to take courses in human behavior.Most simply make no accounting of our traits in their black and white world of number crunching.That's why people like Gerald Celente have been able to outperform their forecasts on a regular basis.His 'Trends Research Institute' is obviously a for profit enterprise designed to make money from us.But it must have the track record to be viable.That's why they weight trends so heavily.They factor in how humans act and react into their forecast modeling.
Housing still remains at the core of misunderstanding.The genesis of the bubble is still heavily debated.Was it the Community Re-investment Act developed under Jimmy Carter in 1977?Was it the greedy,evil bankers?Was it the greedy,evil consumers buying more house than they could afford?Should we blame the Republicans?The Democrats?The government?Do some googling and you will find support for all of these.
As is almost always the case with these things,you will find it's a combination of events.One thing may trigger it,but it usually takes a sequence of events to occur for it to run it's course.The housing bubble is no different.I believe all of the above listed played a part.They all must do their part in generating the perfect storm required to bring down such a resilient economy as we have here in America.
You needed the government manipulation of regulations to enable it.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were primary in this.You needed the bankers to play along and we saw the credit derivatives markets play their key part.Of course,the consumers were an easy mark.Offered a chance to get much more house they could afford,their mentality was whatever,if the banks are dumb enough to give it to me,I'll take it.
There were lots of factors.I only mention a few key ones.And they all had to occur just right for the bubble to inflate.Then you had the key events in the summer of 2008.As we now know,the economy had already slipped into recession in December of 2007.But it took the pressure on consumer prices to trigger the bubble to burst.Oil prices spiked and we had gas prices over $4 a gallon.
We had one other event not often mentioned.George Bush implemented his ethanol mandate which forced the cost of corn to skyrocket.That's when we found out that,just like oil,it's in a vast cross section of products.Not just food.We saw retail prices of food and these other products reliant on corn skyrocket in price.
You had the one-two punch of high oil prices and high food prices,as well as the various other products with those ingredients,put tremendous pressure on our purchasing ability.This just happened to occur at the same time we had so many mortgages starting to reset.Either in the form of ARM's resetting or balloon payments coming due from the avalanche of risky loans sold a few years earlier.
Once people started to miss a couple of house payments because the cost of retail goods were skyrocketing,it didn't take much to collapse the flimsily designed credit derivative market built on the basis that housing values would never decline.
There is one other event that occurred that has never been explained nor really even investigated.It was the electronic run on the banks of September 11,2008.The financial 9-1-1 and it is now just a footnote in history.Who was behind the $550 billion dollar run that morning?It was 11 am when the fed took action to snuff it out or it would have resulted in an estimated $5.5 trillion dollar run by the afternoon.
Remember,it was the severity of this crisis which laid the groundwork for TARP.This bank run was the defining event which triggered the stock market crash and the start of the immediate crisis requiring urgent action model we now seem to follow with every piece of legislation.There are no answers and nobody is officially even looking.
Today,we have a strong run up in stocks.We also have a consumer buying surge.These fly in the face of the other factors out there like the persistent high unemployment rate.The stock rise has generally been attributed to businesses becoming more lean and productive.They have trimmed staff to the bone as well as inventories.Refilling those inventories has created a false sense of demand.Better earnings reports are the results of becoming leaner and more productive.We are at the end of that cycle where productivity gains have maxed out.
Consumer spending is also false.The foreclosure world has completely evolved.Once a stigma that no one wanted to be attached to,it is now openly embraced and maybe even a badge of honor.People brag to their friends about walking away from their mortgages and sticking it to those greedy,evil banks.They pocketed months of mortgage payments before being forced out of their homes and this has lead to a surge in buying goodies like electronics and other convenience items.Not only that,even casino profits are up as people use the last of their unemployment money or stashed mortgage payment money to try to escape with a big win.
People signed onto those big,fat mortgages they shouldn't have ever qualified for and then took out home equity loans to buy cars and other big ticket items.Now we have strategic defaults where people are gaming the system for maximum gain.They stay current on their credit cards while blowing off the mortgage payments.
The stock surge is not false.Businesses have shown a better bottom line for the above reasons and the market is simply responding to that.It is setting itself up for the fall,however,due to the reasoning behind the improved profits.Demand has not increased overall.Businesses are not growing accordingly.Once productivity and efficiency peak,the earnings will have run their course and the end will come.
You simply can't take the numbers at face value.We see a reduction for a week in jobless claims for unemployment and then we hear it's all better and the recovery is underway.The numbers rise at all and it's 'unexpected'.The unemployment rate decreases and the Obama stimulus is working.If it stays flat,then the rebound is going to take a long time.
We always get a short-term reaction to events.One must look long-term to see clearly.The government intervention programs are slowing or ending.The stimulus money is nearing an end.The government mortgage programs and bond buying are slowing.A cash crunch is a very real possibility soon.The foreclosure crisis is far from over.And the debt bubble is ever growing.The derivatives market is the largest in the world at over $600 trillion and it is also growing again.
I can't predict when the real crash will occur.Nobody can with certainty.But you can read between the lines and see that it is coming.Probably another as yet unknown factor will be the trigger for it.Choose your side wisely.It's great to be a positive thinker,but don't do it without good cause.Unless you can substantiate why you discard all of the data showing what is ahead,protect yourself now while you still can.More to come...
I am firmly in the latter camp.I don't buy it for a second.Things happen for a reason but unfortunately some of us remain blinded by the power of positive thinking.It just has to get better.America has always come back.We have,by far,the largest and most resilient economy the world has ever seen.Now this is true without a doubt.But it doesn't happen in spite of itself.
Economists should all be forced to take courses in human behavior.Most simply make no accounting of our traits in their black and white world of number crunching.That's why people like Gerald Celente have been able to outperform their forecasts on a regular basis.His 'Trends Research Institute' is obviously a for profit enterprise designed to make money from us.But it must have the track record to be viable.That's why they weight trends so heavily.They factor in how humans act and react into their forecast modeling.
Housing still remains at the core of misunderstanding.The genesis of the bubble is still heavily debated.Was it the Community Re-investment Act developed under Jimmy Carter in 1977?Was it the greedy,evil bankers?Was it the greedy,evil consumers buying more house than they could afford?Should we blame the Republicans?The Democrats?The government?Do some googling and you will find support for all of these.
As is almost always the case with these things,you will find it's a combination of events.One thing may trigger it,but it usually takes a sequence of events to occur for it to run it's course.The housing bubble is no different.I believe all of the above listed played a part.They all must do their part in generating the perfect storm required to bring down such a resilient economy as we have here in America.
You needed the government manipulation of regulations to enable it.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were primary in this.You needed the bankers to play along and we saw the credit derivatives markets play their key part.Of course,the consumers were an easy mark.Offered a chance to get much more house they could afford,their mentality was whatever,if the banks are dumb enough to give it to me,I'll take it.
There were lots of factors.I only mention a few key ones.And they all had to occur just right for the bubble to inflate.Then you had the key events in the summer of 2008.As we now know,the economy had already slipped into recession in December of 2007.But it took the pressure on consumer prices to trigger the bubble to burst.Oil prices spiked and we had gas prices over $4 a gallon.
We had one other event not often mentioned.George Bush implemented his ethanol mandate which forced the cost of corn to skyrocket.That's when we found out that,just like oil,it's in a vast cross section of products.Not just food.We saw retail prices of food and these other products reliant on corn skyrocket in price.
You had the one-two punch of high oil prices and high food prices,as well as the various other products with those ingredients,put tremendous pressure on our purchasing ability.This just happened to occur at the same time we had so many mortgages starting to reset.Either in the form of ARM's resetting or balloon payments coming due from the avalanche of risky loans sold a few years earlier.
Once people started to miss a couple of house payments because the cost of retail goods were skyrocketing,it didn't take much to collapse the flimsily designed credit derivative market built on the basis that housing values would never decline.
There is one other event that occurred that has never been explained nor really even investigated.It was the electronic run on the banks of September 11,2008.The financial 9-1-1 and it is now just a footnote in history.Who was behind the $550 billion dollar run that morning?It was 11 am when the fed took action to snuff it out or it would have resulted in an estimated $5.5 trillion dollar run by the afternoon.
Remember,it was the severity of this crisis which laid the groundwork for TARP.This bank run was the defining event which triggered the stock market crash and the start of the immediate crisis requiring urgent action model we now seem to follow with every piece of legislation.There are no answers and nobody is officially even looking.
Today,we have a strong run up in stocks.We also have a consumer buying surge.These fly in the face of the other factors out there like the persistent high unemployment rate.The stock rise has generally been attributed to businesses becoming more lean and productive.They have trimmed staff to the bone as well as inventories.Refilling those inventories has created a false sense of demand.Better earnings reports are the results of becoming leaner and more productive.We are at the end of that cycle where productivity gains have maxed out.
Consumer spending is also false.The foreclosure world has completely evolved.Once a stigma that no one wanted to be attached to,it is now openly embraced and maybe even a badge of honor.People brag to their friends about walking away from their mortgages and sticking it to those greedy,evil banks.They pocketed months of mortgage payments before being forced out of their homes and this has lead to a surge in buying goodies like electronics and other convenience items.Not only that,even casino profits are up as people use the last of their unemployment money or stashed mortgage payment money to try to escape with a big win.
People signed onto those big,fat mortgages they shouldn't have ever qualified for and then took out home equity loans to buy cars and other big ticket items.Now we have strategic defaults where people are gaming the system for maximum gain.They stay current on their credit cards while blowing off the mortgage payments.
The stock surge is not false.Businesses have shown a better bottom line for the above reasons and the market is simply responding to that.It is setting itself up for the fall,however,due to the reasoning behind the improved profits.Demand has not increased overall.Businesses are not growing accordingly.Once productivity and efficiency peak,the earnings will have run their course and the end will come.
You simply can't take the numbers at face value.We see a reduction for a week in jobless claims for unemployment and then we hear it's all better and the recovery is underway.The numbers rise at all and it's 'unexpected'.The unemployment rate decreases and the Obama stimulus is working.If it stays flat,then the rebound is going to take a long time.
We always get a short-term reaction to events.One must look long-term to see clearly.The government intervention programs are slowing or ending.The stimulus money is nearing an end.The government mortgage programs and bond buying are slowing.A cash crunch is a very real possibility soon.The foreclosure crisis is far from over.And the debt bubble is ever growing.The derivatives market is the largest in the world at over $600 trillion and it is also growing again.
I can't predict when the real crash will occur.Nobody can with certainty.But you can read between the lines and see that it is coming.Probably another as yet unknown factor will be the trigger for it.Choose your side wisely.It's great to be a positive thinker,but don't do it without good cause.Unless you can substantiate why you discard all of the data showing what is ahead,protect yourself now while you still can.More to come...
Friday, April 23, 2010
Bailgate
Once upon a time the Democrats would at least attempt deception with their motives.These days,the election of Obama has emboldened them to throw caution to the wind on a regular basis.Right out in the open for all to see.
Take the GM 'Bailgate" scandal.Yes,I'll take credit for inventing that term.Withdraw a few billion from one TARP escrow account and give it right back to the government.Then announce with great fanfare that you have paid back your loan 5 years early.
Now this is transparency,the kind we were promised when Obama took office.You can see thru this scam a mile away.No Congressional investigation required.I would think they should have waited until late October to pull this rabbit out of their hat for maximum election value.Too bad for them as it's already been exposed.
Since the government owns them,you'd think this would really tick off the taxpayers.They are using taxpayer money essentially to run the national ad blitz to commit fraud and lie to the American people about paying off the TARP loan.Sorry,taking money from one TARP account and depositing it another doesn't cut the mustard.
Certainly many Americans are familiar with this technique.Call it payment juggling or whatever,we like to use the Mastercard to pay off the Visa bill all the time when we get behind on the bills.Unfortunately it always catches up to you.
The fact is that anyone can see that GM is still losing money every quarter.You can't pay your multi-billion dollar TARP debt when you can't turn a profit.And when you still owe $45.3 billion to the Feds,how is it that you can claim that you paid off your debt in full?Stock that hasn't even been offered for sale yet is just a paper tiger.More to come...
Take the GM 'Bailgate" scandal.Yes,I'll take credit for inventing that term.Withdraw a few billion from one TARP escrow account and give it right back to the government.Then announce with great fanfare that you have paid back your loan 5 years early.
Now this is transparency,the kind we were promised when Obama took office.You can see thru this scam a mile away.No Congressional investigation required.I would think they should have waited until late October to pull this rabbit out of their hat for maximum election value.Too bad for them as it's already been exposed.
Since the government owns them,you'd think this would really tick off the taxpayers.They are using taxpayer money essentially to run the national ad blitz to commit fraud and lie to the American people about paying off the TARP loan.Sorry,taking money from one TARP account and depositing it another doesn't cut the mustard.
Certainly many Americans are familiar with this technique.Call it payment juggling or whatever,we like to use the Mastercard to pay off the Visa bill all the time when we get behind on the bills.Unfortunately it always catches up to you.
The fact is that anyone can see that GM is still losing money every quarter.You can't pay your multi-billion dollar TARP debt when you can't turn a profit.And when you still owe $45.3 billion to the Feds,how is it that you can claim that you paid off your debt in full?Stock that hasn't even been offered for sale yet is just a paper tiger.More to come...
Monday, April 19, 2010
Foreclosure avalanche underway
You ain't seen nothin' yet.Think the worst is over?Buying into the green shoots b.s. being spewed by the White House and the major economists?Sucker!
So many people have gone over these numbers and charts,yet some people just refuse to face the hard data out there.Just look at them again and live in denial at your own peril,at least if you're an investor.
Bank of America has been unloading an average of 7,500 foreclosures onto the market each month.They now plan to really ratchet it up.All the way up to 45,000 per month by the end of this year.That's a 500% increase!Wow!
That's only one bank.JP Morgan Chase is planning on perhaps doubling their contributions as well going from 23,000 to between 33,000 and 45,000 by the end of the year.
Home prices have dropped again,down 3.9% in the last quarter,the first drop in 9 months.The February foreclosure rate of 3.31% has increased over 50% in the last year.
There are currently 8 million homeowners behind on their mortgage payments.Take the existing foreclosure inventory on the market,add in the planned huge upswing in inventory being added to the market by the end of the year,and further factor in the 8 million potential future defaults and you have the recipe for a total collapse of the housing market.
At the end of this month,Bernanke will end the quantitative easing program that dumped over a trillion dollars into the market to stabilize the losses.The number of ARM resets will spike up again this summer and also again next summer leading to even more defaults.
With unemployment remaining high,there is just no prospect of staving off the avalanche underway of defaults flooding the market.The numbers don't lie.More to come...
So many people have gone over these numbers and charts,yet some people just refuse to face the hard data out there.Just look at them again and live in denial at your own peril,at least if you're an investor.
Bank of America has been unloading an average of 7,500 foreclosures onto the market each month.They now plan to really ratchet it up.All the way up to 45,000 per month by the end of this year.That's a 500% increase!Wow!
That's only one bank.JP Morgan Chase is planning on perhaps doubling their contributions as well going from 23,000 to between 33,000 and 45,000 by the end of the year.
Home prices have dropped again,down 3.9% in the last quarter,the first drop in 9 months.The February foreclosure rate of 3.31% has increased over 50% in the last year.
There are currently 8 million homeowners behind on their mortgage payments.Take the existing foreclosure inventory on the market,add in the planned huge upswing in inventory being added to the market by the end of the year,and further factor in the 8 million potential future defaults and you have the recipe for a total collapse of the housing market.
At the end of this month,Bernanke will end the quantitative easing program that dumped over a trillion dollars into the market to stabilize the losses.The number of ARM resets will spike up again this summer and also again next summer leading to even more defaults.
With unemployment remaining high,there is just no prospect of staving off the avalanche underway of defaults flooding the market.The numbers don't lie.More to come...
Friday, April 16, 2010
Tea partiers should thank Obama?
In fact,that's what he claims.He believes that he is responsible for cutting 95% of Americans taxes and so we should thank him.I'm from Michigan and a new report from the liberal Citizens for Tax Justice organization supports his claims.In Michigan,they even up the ante claiming that 99% received a tax cut.Here is the link.
http://www.ctj.org/obamastaxcuts/mi.pdf
I thought I would do a comparison of my own taxes to test his theory.Obviously I'm not going to divulge any specific information,however,I can report percentages.I'm actually a very good candidate because very little has changed in my tax situation over the past two years allowing a fair comparison.
My gross income increased $373 from tax year 2008 to 2009.I know,I'm happy it went up at all.Point is,just a minimal change.I had no life changing events or anything of significance that would affect my deductions or exemptions.The tax rates didn't change,so the only "x" factors are tax credits.
I tried to find the fairest way to compare one year to the next.I decided to simply take my gross pay less social security withholding,medicare withholding and federal income tax withheld.I didn't factor in any benefits I have money withheld for,any state withholding,or any investments.I only want to compare federal taxes as these are what Obama is basing his claim on.I received the $800 Obama 'making work pay' credit for families.I looked for a way to take into account all federal giving and taking of my income and discounted everything else.
So,I took my gross less the 3 federal withholdings and added in my tax refund.That's it.Very simple and only takes into account federal factors.I found that my income increased $373,yet my net take home decreased $895.That's the bottom line.My taxes went up.Guess I'm part of the 1% claimed by the report.This includes the $800 Obama 'gift'.So,for the record I can say that my taxes did indeed go up under Obama even after his increased tax credits.So get out of my face,dude.More to come...
http://www.ctj.org/obamastaxcuts/mi.pdf
I thought I would do a comparison of my own taxes to test his theory.Obviously I'm not going to divulge any specific information,however,I can report percentages.I'm actually a very good candidate because very little has changed in my tax situation over the past two years allowing a fair comparison.
My gross income increased $373 from tax year 2008 to 2009.I know,I'm happy it went up at all.Point is,just a minimal change.I had no life changing events or anything of significance that would affect my deductions or exemptions.The tax rates didn't change,so the only "x" factors are tax credits.
I tried to find the fairest way to compare one year to the next.I decided to simply take my gross pay less social security withholding,medicare withholding and federal income tax withheld.I didn't factor in any benefits I have money withheld for,any state withholding,or any investments.I only want to compare federal taxes as these are what Obama is basing his claim on.I received the $800 Obama 'making work pay' credit for families.I looked for a way to take into account all federal giving and taking of my income and discounted everything else.
So,I took my gross less the 3 federal withholdings and added in my tax refund.That's it.Very simple and only takes into account federal factors.I found that my income increased $373,yet my net take home decreased $895.That's the bottom line.My taxes went up.Guess I'm part of the 1% claimed by the report.This includes the $800 Obama 'gift'.So,for the record I can say that my taxes did indeed go up under Obama even after his increased tax credits.So get out of my face,dude.More to come...
Thursday, April 15, 2010
A simple question
I've been watching some of the financial reform back and forth.Pretty dry stuff,but extremely important to our country.
Now,we were told that if Bush/Obama hadn't stepped in with the TARP bailouts that the financial industry would have imploded bringing down the global economy with it.We had banks that were too big to fail.Conclusion?-bailing out banks that are too big to fail is a good thing.
Today,we are told that Chris Dodd's financial reform bill is designed to prevent these banks from ever being bailed out again at the taxpayers expense.That it will be a foolproof way to prevent it from ever re-occurring.Conclusion?-bailing out banks that are too big to fail is a bad thing.
Here then is a simple question.If the Bush/Obama TARP bailouts are what saved the global economy from a meltdown,why would we now pass legislation to prevent us from saving it in the future?Just askin'.More to come...
Now,we were told that if Bush/Obama hadn't stepped in with the TARP bailouts that the financial industry would have imploded bringing down the global economy with it.We had banks that were too big to fail.Conclusion?-bailing out banks that are too big to fail is a good thing.
Today,we are told that Chris Dodd's financial reform bill is designed to prevent these banks from ever being bailed out again at the taxpayers expense.That it will be a foolproof way to prevent it from ever re-occurring.Conclusion?-bailing out banks that are too big to fail is a bad thing.
Here then is a simple question.If the Bush/Obama TARP bailouts are what saved the global economy from a meltdown,why would we now pass legislation to prevent us from saving it in the future?Just askin'.More to come...
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Duck and cover
Yes,friends,it's time to dust off those old public service announcements and begin anew our training lessons on what to do when the nuclear bombs come raining down.Our illustrious President has made it clear that all the bad guys need to do is make it appear as if it was launched from a country on the Obama 'do not retaliate list' and we will just sit back and take it lying down.Or in the fetal position.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lW4s7TETtJA
It's too bad all of the newspapers are going out of business because according to the video you merely need to cover your face with one and you will be protected.More to come...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lW4s7TETtJA
It's too bad all of the newspapers are going out of business because according to the video you merely need to cover your face with one and you will be protected.More to come...
Sunday, April 11, 2010
The entitlement trap
Entitlements are a very divisive issue amongst the parties.To compound the problem,they are defined in different ways.The public gets stuck in the middle as usual with lots of spin and misinformation provided to keep our eye off the ball.
The usual thinking is that democrats like lots of entitlements under the guise of helping people and that republicans are opposed to them due to the cost.That's on the surface,but it's really more complicated than that.
Democrats like entitlements because they mean power.Pure and simple.Creating the dependency nation is their long term plan for power and perpetual re-election.They try to sell it as compassion,as caring for the needy and less fortunate.To not support it is deemed to be political suicide because you become an easy target as wanting granny to die,to be racist and to generally be opposed to the little guy catching a break.
Republicans oppose entitlements as being fiscally irresponsible.We're broke and can't afford it.They view it as wealth redistribution.Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor.Why should anyone else be entitled to the fruits of my labor?They believe that every single citizen should pay taxes.Everyone should have a stake in our society.Even the poor should pay something,albeit much less than those with the means to pay more.
What qualifies as an entitlement?Most people would say social security, medicare/medicaid and welfare.It's not that simple.Social security on it's face is not an entitlement.You have been contributing your entire working life thru payroll deductions to your theoretical personal account.When you retire,you then pull those funds back out of the system.Sounds good so far.You paid in and now you merely get your money back.True unless you live too long.Once you go beyond the tipping point and outlive your contributions,you still continue to receive benefit checks.This is the point where you crossover and become a burden to society and thus are receiving an entitlement.
Medicare and medicaid are set-up in a similar fashion.If you were to somehow be the model of health and die at a nice early age,you may not ever have any claims against medicare or medicaid thus not becoming a recipient of an entitlement.For the vast majority of Americans,this is not the case.Old age dictates that our bodies need a whole lot of maintenance and our claims on the system easily surpass what our payroll contributions were during our working life.
Unemployment is similar to social security.Both the employee and the employer contribute to the trust fund which is then withdrawn when we become unemployed.However,Congress keeps extending additional benefits for the long term unemployed at which point you become a burden on society because you are taking out more than you and your employer ever put in.
So it's not a clear cut case on entitlements.It's dependent on individual situations and usually determined by longevity.The bottom line is if you are receiving something you didn't pay for at the expense of others,it's an entitlement.
The problem comes in the form of the argument presented by the two main parties.Republicans argue that never ending free lunches dis incentivize the public.If you always know that you can get something for nothing,you lose interest in doing anything about your situation.Particularly as you are 'penalized' for trying to do so.
For example,as you make more money,you pay a higher progressive income tax.You may lose those free lunch entitlements such as the earned income tax credit or other similar credits that you received when you made less money.You can actually end up with less money in your pocket after taxes minus those entitlement credits.This kills the will of someone wanting to move up the ladder.Why should they do it if they get penalized to do so?Why work harder for less?
Republicans argue that is inherently unfair to redistribute wealth and equally unwise to encourage long term dependency by the structure of entitlements.People who have had a bad break,lost their job,developed an expensive medical condition,etc.,all can get into the situation where it is too difficult to pull themselves out of it and easier to stay where they are.Responsibility and self-reliance are simply taken out of the equation.
This is the difficult selling point.How do you convince the public that they are better off with a system that only provides temporary help to those that really need it and force you back off it as soon as possible so you again become productive,self-sustaining,and not a burden on others?The problem is that most would agree with this only when they aren't in that situation.When they are,their perspective changes and they think it's not so bad taking some from those more fortunate.Until they fall into the trap and realize it's far more difficult to cross over the hump to get back out.
Democrats realize this perfect storm many years ago and have been playing it to their advantage for just as long.Obama is simply taking it to the next level.He can see the finish line in sight.He has several plans playing out right now.Health care was only one part.Amnesty for illegals is upcoming.The VAT tax is another designed to stress the economy even more to generate more dependency.He'll also go after card check to increase union membership.
Democrats are simply using the entitlement mentality to their advantage.They are better students of the human psyche than republicans.They know republicans haven't developed a sufficient argument to offset their claims of compassion.They have the system rigged so that once you descend into a dependency state,it's very difficult to get back out.It can be riskier or just less rewarding to get over that hump.
This is the challenge facing the country.Continue on this path and America will be destroyed without question.We can't afford it and history is littered with failed examples of socialism.The creation of a dependency nation has been a long,slow crusade by design.To sap the can-do spirit of American that created this nation doesn't happen overnight.The time was when we would not lay down in the face of adversity and accept the easy way out.It in fact was frowned upon.
It has taken this long to get us staged if you will into a mode of acceptance.That it is socially acceptable to be in a position of relying on government for our daily needs.I have stated previously that the republicans will need a salesman to reverse this trend.They can no longer simply claim conservative values and self responsibility and expect that to resonate with the masses that have fallen into the trap.What do they care about deficits and debt when they are in the dependency state?That's somebody else's problem.
Whoever it is that has the ability to connect with these people and show them a way out must be a good salesman.They must also have great political savvy to be able to manipulate Congress into reforming entitlements.The system must be altered to provide incremental steps of progression so as not to penalize those that want out.And to not provide the comfort of endless free lunches to those that don't want out.Some will take advantage on their own to get out.Some must be forced out.Then you only have a safety net left for those that simply can't get out.More to come...
The usual thinking is that democrats like lots of entitlements under the guise of helping people and that republicans are opposed to them due to the cost.That's on the surface,but it's really more complicated than that.
Democrats like entitlements because they mean power.Pure and simple.Creating the dependency nation is their long term plan for power and perpetual re-election.They try to sell it as compassion,as caring for the needy and less fortunate.To not support it is deemed to be political suicide because you become an easy target as wanting granny to die,to be racist and to generally be opposed to the little guy catching a break.
Republicans oppose entitlements as being fiscally irresponsible.We're broke and can't afford it.They view it as wealth redistribution.Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor.Why should anyone else be entitled to the fruits of my labor?They believe that every single citizen should pay taxes.Everyone should have a stake in our society.Even the poor should pay something,albeit much less than those with the means to pay more.
What qualifies as an entitlement?Most people would say social security, medicare/medicaid and welfare.It's not that simple.Social security on it's face is not an entitlement.You have been contributing your entire working life thru payroll deductions to your theoretical personal account.When you retire,you then pull those funds back out of the system.Sounds good so far.You paid in and now you merely get your money back.True unless you live too long.Once you go beyond the tipping point and outlive your contributions,you still continue to receive benefit checks.This is the point where you crossover and become a burden to society and thus are receiving an entitlement.
Medicare and medicaid are set-up in a similar fashion.If you were to somehow be the model of health and die at a nice early age,you may not ever have any claims against medicare or medicaid thus not becoming a recipient of an entitlement.For the vast majority of Americans,this is not the case.Old age dictates that our bodies need a whole lot of maintenance and our claims on the system easily surpass what our payroll contributions were during our working life.
Unemployment is similar to social security.Both the employee and the employer contribute to the trust fund which is then withdrawn when we become unemployed.However,Congress keeps extending additional benefits for the long term unemployed at which point you become a burden on society because you are taking out more than you and your employer ever put in.
So it's not a clear cut case on entitlements.It's dependent on individual situations and usually determined by longevity.The bottom line is if you are receiving something you didn't pay for at the expense of others,it's an entitlement.
The problem comes in the form of the argument presented by the two main parties.Republicans argue that never ending free lunches dis incentivize the public.If you always know that you can get something for nothing,you lose interest in doing anything about your situation.Particularly as you are 'penalized' for trying to do so.
For example,as you make more money,you pay a higher progressive income tax.You may lose those free lunch entitlements such as the earned income tax credit or other similar credits that you received when you made less money.You can actually end up with less money in your pocket after taxes minus those entitlement credits.This kills the will of someone wanting to move up the ladder.Why should they do it if they get penalized to do so?Why work harder for less?
Republicans argue that is inherently unfair to redistribute wealth and equally unwise to encourage long term dependency by the structure of entitlements.People who have had a bad break,lost their job,developed an expensive medical condition,etc.,all can get into the situation where it is too difficult to pull themselves out of it and easier to stay where they are.Responsibility and self-reliance are simply taken out of the equation.
This is the difficult selling point.How do you convince the public that they are better off with a system that only provides temporary help to those that really need it and force you back off it as soon as possible so you again become productive,self-sustaining,and not a burden on others?The problem is that most would agree with this only when they aren't in that situation.When they are,their perspective changes and they think it's not so bad taking some from those more fortunate.Until they fall into the trap and realize it's far more difficult to cross over the hump to get back out.
Democrats realize this perfect storm many years ago and have been playing it to their advantage for just as long.Obama is simply taking it to the next level.He can see the finish line in sight.He has several plans playing out right now.Health care was only one part.Amnesty for illegals is upcoming.The VAT tax is another designed to stress the economy even more to generate more dependency.He'll also go after card check to increase union membership.
Democrats are simply using the entitlement mentality to their advantage.They are better students of the human psyche than republicans.They know republicans haven't developed a sufficient argument to offset their claims of compassion.They have the system rigged so that once you descend into a dependency state,it's very difficult to get back out.It can be riskier or just less rewarding to get over that hump.
This is the challenge facing the country.Continue on this path and America will be destroyed without question.We can't afford it and history is littered with failed examples of socialism.The creation of a dependency nation has been a long,slow crusade by design.To sap the can-do spirit of American that created this nation doesn't happen overnight.The time was when we would not lay down in the face of adversity and accept the easy way out.It in fact was frowned upon.
It has taken this long to get us staged if you will into a mode of acceptance.That it is socially acceptable to be in a position of relying on government for our daily needs.I have stated previously that the republicans will need a salesman to reverse this trend.They can no longer simply claim conservative values and self responsibility and expect that to resonate with the masses that have fallen into the trap.What do they care about deficits and debt when they are in the dependency state?That's somebody else's problem.
Whoever it is that has the ability to connect with these people and show them a way out must be a good salesman.They must also have great political savvy to be able to manipulate Congress into reforming entitlements.The system must be altered to provide incremental steps of progression so as not to penalize those that want out.And to not provide the comfort of endless free lunches to those that don't want out.Some will take advantage on their own to get out.Some must be forced out.Then you only have a safety net left for those that simply can't get out.More to come...
Thursday, April 8, 2010
America is dying
The Founding Fathers warned us that times like these would try us.They recognized even then what so many of us can't recognize today as it's happening right in front of us.
Liberty has a price.It's over 233 years of blood,sweat,tears and eternal vigilance.We owe not only our gratitude to those that provided us our freedom,but also commitment to protect and secure it for all time.
Freedom needs to be exercised.We should enjoy it's fruits everyday by living our lives the American way.Freedom has no value if we don't utilize it.Passively sitting back and watching it erode is unforgivable.Too many have given all to provide it.Ask yourself-are you doing all you can to both live it and protect it?What more can you do?Today,right now!Don't hesitate or it will be gone forever!More to come...
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Detroit must go bankrupt
The CRC has released it's report on the fiscal condition of the city of Detroit.You can read it here.
http://www.crcmich.org/PUBLICAT/2010s/2010/rpt361.pdf
The state of Michigan certainly can't bail the city out and the feds aren't going to pony up the money either.Besides,this would be the worst possible outcome.Just as it was with bailing out the big banks in 2008.I am certain that this country could be well on it's way to a true economic recovery if we hadn't.The fallout would have been more severe in certain segments immediately after letting those banks fail.However,the recovery would be real afterwards rather than the false recovery we are now seeing.
Detroit is in that same position.The fiscal policies of the city must be thrown out to allow any reorganization to have a chance at success.Everything about the way the city does business needs to be overhauled.The unions will heavily protest it because they stand to lose the most.However,a new budget based on tax revenues that will continue to shrink for several more years is the only thing that makes any sense.
If you don't do this now and simply try the standard old,band aid approach,the city will never survive.Just throwing some more money at it won't work.The citizens of Detroit will hopefully realize that this is their one and only chance to get this right and have any hope of resurrecting the city in the future.More to come...
http://www.crcmich.org/PUBLICAT/2010s/2010/rpt361.pdf
The state of Michigan certainly can't bail the city out and the feds aren't going to pony up the money either.Besides,this would be the worst possible outcome.Just as it was with bailing out the big banks in 2008.I am certain that this country could be well on it's way to a true economic recovery if we hadn't.The fallout would have been more severe in certain segments immediately after letting those banks fail.However,the recovery would be real afterwards rather than the false recovery we are now seeing.
Detroit is in that same position.The fiscal policies of the city must be thrown out to allow any reorganization to have a chance at success.Everything about the way the city does business needs to be overhauled.The unions will heavily protest it because they stand to lose the most.However,a new budget based on tax revenues that will continue to shrink for several more years is the only thing that makes any sense.
If you don't do this now and simply try the standard old,band aid approach,the city will never survive.Just throwing some more money at it won't work.The citizens of Detroit will hopefully realize that this is their one and only chance to get this right and have any hope of resurrecting the city in the future.More to come...
Free will and rights
These two subjects may seem completely different,yet they tie into together nicely.Do we really have free will?What are our natural rights?Well,they come from the same source.I,as a Christian,believe in God as the Creator.Certainly,many of you may not.That is not the intent of this post.Sorry,you'll have to stick with my beliefs for this one.This is not intended to influence your choices in life,only to illustrate how intertwined the two are.
I have had this discussion in various forms with many different people over the years.Suffice it to say that no one has ever given me a credible alternative to what I believe.I believe that we do not truly have free will.Freedom to completely make the decisions in our lives without bias.Good or evil.Many believe we do.That you decide the course of your life here on earth.
I say if you believe in God and the bible as scripture,you cannot also hold the view that you have true,free will.God has a master plan for all of his domain.The entire universe and it's inhabitants.The human race has a pre-determined destiny.Our fate is set in stone.Down to the minute.How,when and where.Unfortunately for us,only God knows these details.No one else knows the end date despite many who claim they do.
With this in mind,the only way this is possible is for God to have complete control of every facet of his universe.There cannot be any unknown factors which may alter the endgame.For any of us to have the ability to execute free will and impact others would jeopardize this.A madman could instigate a nuclear war triggering a world ending scenario.
The fact is that your actions impact others.For every action,there is an equal reaction.Simple physics.This is why I don't believe it is possible for free will as I could forever alter destiny for myself and others based on my actions.I believe we are simply allowed to think that we are making these choices on our own thus believing we have free will.Think about it.God had the ability to create all of this.It's on a scale we can hardly comprehend and so much of it we cannot.He could certainly have allowed us to feel as though we are 'in charge' of our lives.
The only way to guarantee an outcome at a predetermined time and place is to have complete control.So feel free to continue on with your beliefs.If you disagree,well I believe that was intended as well.By the way,you absolutely should continue on living your life and doing what you believe to be the right thing.Just do so in the knowledge that you are simply fulfilling your role in a much larger plan.
With the debate over health care,the question has been raised if it is a right.Clearly,it is not.Similar to free will,a right executed by one individual cannot infringe on another individuals ability to execute their right.In the case of free will,if I shoot you dead,I have eliminated any choice you have negating it.In the case of a right,the only way I get guaranteed health care is for another person or more to pay for it.That infringes on their life meaning it simply cannot be a right.
Opportunity is often confused with a right.We have many opportunities afforded to us by the fact that we live in a free country.But they are just that,opportunities.No guarantees of success.Our rights are extended to us by God meaning they cannot be taken away.Health care can be taken away.As are many things we want every person to have based on moral and ethical grounds.
Studying this led to me to another conclusion which baffled me for years.It's commonly thought that we must ask for salvation to get to Heaven.If you don't,you don't get in.I wondered than how do people in unique situations ever get to Heaven.Say a child who dies immediately after birth.Someone born brain dead.Retarded.Deaf.Some mental capacity which limits them.What if they live in a very rural area without a church?You can think of many scenarios where one may never hear the word of God in their life.
My conclusion was that we are all born going to Heaven.You can only screw it up.This is the only way to explain how these people can still go despite having never heard the word of God.If you do hear it and reject it,you go to Hell.Very simple.
That's why I tie all this in together.There are only a few things guaranteed to us at birth.These rights are permanent and indisputable.If I exercise my right,I in no way will infringe on yours.Free will is a myth.Life will present us with many choices.We decide in our minds which path to take,yet a higher power is guiding that choice unbeknowst to us.
Some of us do have a true choice to make in life.Whether or not we accept the word of God.This is a real choice,true free will if you will.It is a right in that God has guaranteed us acceptance into Heaven if we accept His word.More to come...
I have had this discussion in various forms with many different people over the years.Suffice it to say that no one has ever given me a credible alternative to what I believe.I believe that we do not truly have free will.Freedom to completely make the decisions in our lives without bias.Good or evil.Many believe we do.That you decide the course of your life here on earth.
I say if you believe in God and the bible as scripture,you cannot also hold the view that you have true,free will.God has a master plan for all of his domain.The entire universe and it's inhabitants.The human race has a pre-determined destiny.Our fate is set in stone.Down to the minute.How,when and where.Unfortunately for us,only God knows these details.No one else knows the end date despite many who claim they do.
With this in mind,the only way this is possible is for God to have complete control of every facet of his universe.There cannot be any unknown factors which may alter the endgame.For any of us to have the ability to execute free will and impact others would jeopardize this.A madman could instigate a nuclear war triggering a world ending scenario.
The fact is that your actions impact others.For every action,there is an equal reaction.Simple physics.This is why I don't believe it is possible for free will as I could forever alter destiny for myself and others based on my actions.I believe we are simply allowed to think that we are making these choices on our own thus believing we have free will.Think about it.God had the ability to create all of this.It's on a scale we can hardly comprehend and so much of it we cannot.He could certainly have allowed us to feel as though we are 'in charge' of our lives.
The only way to guarantee an outcome at a predetermined time and place is to have complete control.So feel free to continue on with your beliefs.If you disagree,well I believe that was intended as well.By the way,you absolutely should continue on living your life and doing what you believe to be the right thing.Just do so in the knowledge that you are simply fulfilling your role in a much larger plan.
With the debate over health care,the question has been raised if it is a right.Clearly,it is not.Similar to free will,a right executed by one individual cannot infringe on another individuals ability to execute their right.In the case of free will,if I shoot you dead,I have eliminated any choice you have negating it.In the case of a right,the only way I get guaranteed health care is for another person or more to pay for it.That infringes on their life meaning it simply cannot be a right.
Opportunity is often confused with a right.We have many opportunities afforded to us by the fact that we live in a free country.But they are just that,opportunities.No guarantees of success.Our rights are extended to us by God meaning they cannot be taken away.Health care can be taken away.As are many things we want every person to have based on moral and ethical grounds.
Studying this led to me to another conclusion which baffled me for years.It's commonly thought that we must ask for salvation to get to Heaven.If you don't,you don't get in.I wondered than how do people in unique situations ever get to Heaven.Say a child who dies immediately after birth.Someone born brain dead.Retarded.Deaf.Some mental capacity which limits them.What if they live in a very rural area without a church?You can think of many scenarios where one may never hear the word of God in their life.
My conclusion was that we are all born going to Heaven.You can only screw it up.This is the only way to explain how these people can still go despite having never heard the word of God.If you do hear it and reject it,you go to Hell.Very simple.
That's why I tie all this in together.There are only a few things guaranteed to us at birth.These rights are permanent and indisputable.If I exercise my right,I in no way will infringe on yours.Free will is a myth.Life will present us with many choices.We decide in our minds which path to take,yet a higher power is guiding that choice unbeknowst to us.
Some of us do have a true choice to make in life.Whether or not we accept the word of God.This is a real choice,true free will if you will.It is a right in that God has guaranteed us acceptance into Heaven if we accept His word.More to come...
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Bubble trouble
If you've watched any mainstream news outlets recently,you've heard it proclaimed that the recovery is fully underway.That the "Great" recession ended in June of 2009.The stock market is marching relentlessly forward.That housing has bottomed.That unemployment has bottomed out and that we are now adding jobs again.
Sounds pretty darn good.To be fair,most of these reports are tempered with the statement that "we have a long way to go".Those on the left point to the Obama stimulus and the actions of the Federal Reserve as the reasons for the recovery.
The reasons for the recession have been discussed and debated like no other before.We have a whole nation of "experts" now on economics.The blame for the recession doesn't follow standard partisan lines.Some blame the federal government regulations,some blame the evil,greedy corporations,some blame irresponsible consumers.Most blame some combination of these.
Why is it then that so many refuse to believe what they are seeing today?Armed with their crash course knowledge of economics and why the meltdown occurred hasn't translated into recognizing the building of the next crash.The American spirit has always been a can-do attitude and one of optimism.It's an intangible that this country was built on.However,it also can blind you to reality.
People love to buy into the logic of 'if we had just done a little bit more'.A little more regulation.Invest a little more here and there.That this time we will get it right because we have now have hindsight to teach us.Yet we react in the same predictable manner which allows the boom/bust cycles to continue perpetually.
We must keep in mind that all bubbles don't need to burst to have a negative effect on the economy.Just like a boil on your skin,it's painful as it expands,but if it doesn't get infected it may just drain on it's own without breaking.
The bubbles that we have are almost always created by government policy which allow and enable them.Consumers and borrowers than impact the size of the bubble.Certainly,these are generalizations and there may be many complicated factors as to how big and how long a bubble exists.
But the point is that they are dynamic.They impact the economy at varying levels over time.Some get too big and burst causing a dramatic crash.Some don't reach the point of bursting and instead act as a drag,or anchor,on the economy.We are seeing both play out today.
Remember,this minor recovery was also predicted a long time ago.It's going essentially as predicted.Read Harry Dent's "The Great Depression Ahead".All of this was foretold from the crash to the minor recovery we're seeing today,to the eventual big crash to come.
Again,no surprises here.Yet,so many are now beginning to wonder,is it real?Is the Obama stimulus really starting to work?Such poor students of history we are.The spike in temp hiring from the census was projected.The peak in worker productivity as well which means as we regress from being pushed to the extreme and everyone being as productive as possible,more hiring MUST occur to fill in the gaps.That will,however,be at the expense of net profits as payroll will increase.This will be a future drag on the economy.For every action,there is a reaction.
You will also see the part-time workers,the temporary workers and the people who quit searching for work drag down the unemployment numbers for a long time.All of those people want to return to full time employment and will stunt any new job creation.
Just keep a wary eye toward all of the "positive" economic news sure to come spilling out of Washington with the mid-term elections upcoming.It will sound much better than it really is.Remember,you were warned ahead of time just like before.More to come...
Sounds pretty darn good.To be fair,most of these reports are tempered with the statement that "we have a long way to go".Those on the left point to the Obama stimulus and the actions of the Federal Reserve as the reasons for the recovery.
The reasons for the recession have been discussed and debated like no other before.We have a whole nation of "experts" now on economics.The blame for the recession doesn't follow standard partisan lines.Some blame the federal government regulations,some blame the evil,greedy corporations,some blame irresponsible consumers.Most blame some combination of these.
Why is it then that so many refuse to believe what they are seeing today?Armed with their crash course knowledge of economics and why the meltdown occurred hasn't translated into recognizing the building of the next crash.The American spirit has always been a can-do attitude and one of optimism.It's an intangible that this country was built on.However,it also can blind you to reality.
People love to buy into the logic of 'if we had just done a little bit more'.A little more regulation.Invest a little more here and there.That this time we will get it right because we have now have hindsight to teach us.Yet we react in the same predictable manner which allows the boom/bust cycles to continue perpetually.
We must keep in mind that all bubbles don't need to burst to have a negative effect on the economy.Just like a boil on your skin,it's painful as it expands,but if it doesn't get infected it may just drain on it's own without breaking.
The bubbles that we have are almost always created by government policy which allow and enable them.Consumers and borrowers than impact the size of the bubble.Certainly,these are generalizations and there may be many complicated factors as to how big and how long a bubble exists.
But the point is that they are dynamic.They impact the economy at varying levels over time.Some get too big and burst causing a dramatic crash.Some don't reach the point of bursting and instead act as a drag,or anchor,on the economy.We are seeing both play out today.
Remember,this minor recovery was also predicted a long time ago.It's going essentially as predicted.Read Harry Dent's "The Great Depression Ahead".All of this was foretold from the crash to the minor recovery we're seeing today,to the eventual big crash to come.
Again,no surprises here.Yet,so many are now beginning to wonder,is it real?Is the Obama stimulus really starting to work?Such poor students of history we are.The spike in temp hiring from the census was projected.The peak in worker productivity as well which means as we regress from being pushed to the extreme and everyone being as productive as possible,more hiring MUST occur to fill in the gaps.That will,however,be at the expense of net profits as payroll will increase.This will be a future drag on the economy.For every action,there is a reaction.
You will also see the part-time workers,the temporary workers and the people who quit searching for work drag down the unemployment numbers for a long time.All of those people want to return to full time employment and will stunt any new job creation.
Just keep a wary eye toward all of the "positive" economic news sure to come spilling out of Washington with the mid-term elections upcoming.It will sound much better than it really is.Remember,you were warned ahead of time just like before.More to come...
Friday, April 2, 2010
Jobs report falls below expectations
The March 2010 unemployment numbers are out.The rate is unchanged at 9.7%.Now it's time to tweak the numbers to your political advantage.The report shows a gain of 162,000 non-farm payroll jobs.This is the number the left will promote.
Included in that are 48,000 census jobs.Temp help services added 40,000 jobs.Combined,that means 88,000 temp jobs leaving 74,000 real,full time jobs created.This does not keep up with the 100,000+ required each month for our expanding birth rate and immigration requirements.In other words,adding over 100,000 new full time private sector new jobs each and every month is the baseline for job growth.
The key numbers you won't see promoted so much are the alternative measures,mainly the U-6 underemployment number which ticked up to 16.9%.You also won't see the number that fall off the survey as it only includes the last 4 weeks.When you have exhausted your benefits and are no longer actively seeking work,you essentially don't exist anymore,at least in the world of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The numbers fell short of analysts projections for job growth,but there will be 2 revisions to come before the final numbers are out.Regardless,they are well below what they should be at this stage of a recovery and don't bode well to support the administrations efforts at job growth.More to come...
Included in that are 48,000 census jobs.Temp help services added 40,000 jobs.Combined,that means 88,000 temp jobs leaving 74,000 real,full time jobs created.This does not keep up with the 100,000+ required each month for our expanding birth rate and immigration requirements.In other words,adding over 100,000 new full time private sector new jobs each and every month is the baseline for job growth.
The key numbers you won't see promoted so much are the alternative measures,mainly the U-6 underemployment number which ticked up to 16.9%.You also won't see the number that fall off the survey as it only includes the last 4 weeks.When you have exhausted your benefits and are no longer actively seeking work,you essentially don't exist anymore,at least in the world of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The numbers fell short of analysts projections for job growth,but there will be 2 revisions to come before the final numbers are out.Regardless,they are well below what they should be at this stage of a recovery and don't bode well to support the administrations efforts at job growth.More to come...
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Worker time bomb battle brewing
There is a brewing battle that promises to be very divisive and may lead to some very unfortunate circumstances.It's the public vs. private worker.As public employee employment continues to rise at the expense of the private sector workers,this is a powder keg waiting to ignite.
The national unemployment rate is still near 10% officially.The actual number is much higher when you include workers who have stopped receiving benefits,or stopped looking for work,or are underemployed.There is frustration mounting when these people see expanding government workers who are paid by taxpayers,including those unemployed private sector workers receiving benefits.
It's an extension of the haves/have nots class warfare.Like the scab workers that cross union picket lines to work for less money.Only in this case,they are making even more money as the gap between private sector and public sector compensation is rapidly widening.
State and local municipalities,cities,and townships are all starting to be pinched.Public pensions are vastly underfunded and will break the backs of budgets across the country.This year will start the expected avalanche of bankruptcies as the stimulus bailout funds will no longer prop up the budgets.
This is the trigger for the other shoe to drop that will send this country back into recession as the domino effect will spread.Obama has been ignoring the economy and the jobs issue since he took office.Instead we focus on the stimulus,which is just a slush fund of political payoffs and band-aid budget fixes,health care and climate change.
The federal reserve is also promoting the theory of buying time until everything just gets better on it's own.The results from these policies of ignorance promise to be catastrophic to our country.The uncertainty of late 2007 when the banking world was about to melt down will be replaced with the certainty this time that all of the toxic garbage must be flushed out.It won't be pretty.
I'm afraid that those public sector workers will be targeted as the private sector looks on with envy while their struggles go on and on.Watch your back if that's you because desperate people will want heads to roll and if you still have a job you will be viewed as part of the problem.Elections have consequences.Socialism has consequences.More to come...
The national unemployment rate is still near 10% officially.The actual number is much higher when you include workers who have stopped receiving benefits,or stopped looking for work,or are underemployed.There is frustration mounting when these people see expanding government workers who are paid by taxpayers,including those unemployed private sector workers receiving benefits.
It's an extension of the haves/have nots class warfare.Like the scab workers that cross union picket lines to work for less money.Only in this case,they are making even more money as the gap between private sector and public sector compensation is rapidly widening.
State and local municipalities,cities,and townships are all starting to be pinched.Public pensions are vastly underfunded and will break the backs of budgets across the country.This year will start the expected avalanche of bankruptcies as the stimulus bailout funds will no longer prop up the budgets.
This is the trigger for the other shoe to drop that will send this country back into recession as the domino effect will spread.Obama has been ignoring the economy and the jobs issue since he took office.Instead we focus on the stimulus,which is just a slush fund of political payoffs and band-aid budget fixes,health care and climate change.
The federal reserve is also promoting the theory of buying time until everything just gets better on it's own.The results from these policies of ignorance promise to be catastrophic to our country.The uncertainty of late 2007 when the banking world was about to melt down will be replaced with the certainty this time that all of the toxic garbage must be flushed out.It won't be pretty.
I'm afraid that those public sector workers will be targeted as the private sector looks on with envy while their struggles go on and on.Watch your back if that's you because desperate people will want heads to roll and if you still have a job you will be viewed as part of the problem.Elections have consequences.Socialism has consequences.More to come...
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