Friday, October 9, 2009
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Public option-good thing?
As Al Gore loves to say,the debate is over.Will the public option force people to drop their private insurance healthcare?No.Will the public option result in employers dropping their private healthcare plan in favor of the public option?Yes.
The means aren't important,it's the end result.This is similar to the "save or create" strategy of Obama to muddy the waters.Or go furthur back to "what is the meaning of is" in the Clinton era.
Simple economics,nothing complicated.If the government produces a healthcare option that has a cheaper monthly premium,of course people and companies will go to it in droves.The government has no profit motive,no stockholders to answer to,in short no reason to compete on a level playing surface.So yes,the private healthcare industry will be destroyed as is the goal.
If this public option is so good,why not expand it into other areas?How about baseball?If we had a publicly owned team,salaries,trades and seat prices could be drastically lowered.So,let's have a public option sports team in each of the major sports to artificially lower ticket prices for all.
The sky is the limit here.We could list off any number of industries where we believe prices are too high,or even salaries.In theory,having a government run option in each one would provide the checks and balances to keep everyone honest and lower prices and salaries to the minimum.Do you buy that?
You could argue that's it's unconstitutional for the government to be in business and you'd be right.
You could argue that any government run program has always resulted in higher prices,bloat,corruption,losses and wasting of taxpayer dollars and you'd be right.
You could argue that anytime the government competes with private industry that the free markets suffer and you'd be right.Critics would argue that in some industries such as the USPS is already competing with FedEx and UPS.However,this is not an apples to apples comparison.
The healthcare debate has other factors as well.Politics play a huge role in this debate so it's not just a matter of reducing costs by introducing a cheaper competitor.I suppose the core issue in this argument is the role of the profit motive.
The critics will claim the profit motive is a negative leading to the exhorbitant salaries.Proponents claim the profit motive is what leads to lower prices as companies must compete or be run out of town.Tough to argue that one.If you're priced higher than your competitors,you will fail.Value and quality and service will offset this to a degree,but not without limits.A Rolex is certainly preferred to a Timex,but only to a certain price point.
The problem is allowing an option in which the competitor has virtually unlimited resources and doesn't have to make a profit.This is the government,of course,and a normal business can't compete with that.It's like going to Vegas with the guarantee of having your losses re-imbursed no matter what.Who wouldn't spend foolishly?
So,the debate is over on the merits.The public option is purely a political issue and anti-business.Still not convinced the public option is a good thing?What if we did a similar thing with education?Aren't cost too high?Let's put out teaching positions to the lowest salaries.Wouldn't some people be willing to teach for much less than what our current teachers make?Sure,they would.But would you sacrifice your quality of education to save money?
Need more?How about your water bill?Seems awfully high for what falls from the sky for free.Why not put that out for lower bids?Would you have any concerns about safety or the quality of the water if companies were forced to lower prices to compete with a competitor that has no worries of making a profit?
The only way the free market works is if all of the competitors play on a level playing field.Take a closer look at Tort reform,restrictions on purchasing insurance across state lines and other artificial price hikes if you want to lower costs.Separate the market issues from the politics and you'll get your wish.More to come...
The means aren't important,it's the end result.This is similar to the "save or create" strategy of Obama to muddy the waters.Or go furthur back to "what is the meaning of is" in the Clinton era.
Simple economics,nothing complicated.If the government produces a healthcare option that has a cheaper monthly premium,of course people and companies will go to it in droves.The government has no profit motive,no stockholders to answer to,in short no reason to compete on a level playing surface.So yes,the private healthcare industry will be destroyed as is the goal.
If this public option is so good,why not expand it into other areas?How about baseball?If we had a publicly owned team,salaries,trades and seat prices could be drastically lowered.So,let's have a public option sports team in each of the major sports to artificially lower ticket prices for all.
The sky is the limit here.We could list off any number of industries where we believe prices are too high,or even salaries.In theory,having a government run option in each one would provide the checks and balances to keep everyone honest and lower prices and salaries to the minimum.Do you buy that?
You could argue that's it's unconstitutional for the government to be in business and you'd be right.
You could argue that any government run program has always resulted in higher prices,bloat,corruption,losses and wasting of taxpayer dollars and you'd be right.
You could argue that anytime the government competes with private industry that the free markets suffer and you'd be right.Critics would argue that in some industries such as the USPS is already competing with FedEx and UPS.However,this is not an apples to apples comparison.
The healthcare debate has other factors as well.Politics play a huge role in this debate so it's not just a matter of reducing costs by introducing a cheaper competitor.I suppose the core issue in this argument is the role of the profit motive.
The critics will claim the profit motive is a negative leading to the exhorbitant salaries.Proponents claim the profit motive is what leads to lower prices as companies must compete or be run out of town.Tough to argue that one.If you're priced higher than your competitors,you will fail.Value and quality and service will offset this to a degree,but not without limits.A Rolex is certainly preferred to a Timex,but only to a certain price point.
The problem is allowing an option in which the competitor has virtually unlimited resources and doesn't have to make a profit.This is the government,of course,and a normal business can't compete with that.It's like going to Vegas with the guarantee of having your losses re-imbursed no matter what.Who wouldn't spend foolishly?
So,the debate is over on the merits.The public option is purely a political issue and anti-business.Still not convinced the public option is a good thing?What if we did a similar thing with education?Aren't cost too high?Let's put out teaching positions to the lowest salaries.Wouldn't some people be willing to teach for much less than what our current teachers make?Sure,they would.But would you sacrifice your quality of education to save money?
Need more?How about your water bill?Seems awfully high for what falls from the sky for free.Why not put that out for lower bids?Would you have any concerns about safety or the quality of the water if companies were forced to lower prices to compete with a competitor that has no worries of making a profit?
The only way the free market works is if all of the competitors play on a level playing field.Take a closer look at Tort reform,restrictions on purchasing insurance across state lines and other artificial price hikes if you want to lower costs.Separate the market issues from the politics and you'll get your wish.More to come...
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Had your CPS survey lately?
The CPS,or current population survey,is the tool used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to determine the monthly national unemployment rate.It's a telephone survey of approximately 60,000 households.This has been done since the 1940's and has been modified many times over the years.
The survey is based on a sample process that breaks down households from larger metropolitan areas down to blocks of 4 households.They conduct the telephone interviews for 4 consecutive months,off for 8 months,and then it's repeated.The idea is survey 50% of the households with-in a 2 year period.It's usually conducted during the week of the month with the 12th day in it.
There are about 1,500 employees that conduct these surveys using publicly available address databases and other sources such as building permits.There are approx. 115 million households in the U.S. and surveying 60,000 is only about .05%.There are about 154 million in the labor force with another 80 million meeting the age minimum of 15 years old who aren't in the labor force for various reasons.
Here's my problem.I'm 44 years old and been a homeowner for 20 years.I've never been contacted for this survey.I took a survey of my own and found that no one I know has ever been surveyed either.I wonder about those of you out there.Do you find similar results?
For those that pay attention to these numbers,many feel they are artificially low.The BLS does publish it's alternative measure tables and more people are paying attention to the U-6 measure which includes marginally attached workers to get a more accurate sense of the true unemployment rate.
As we see the reports of new claims filed each week exceeding half a million,these numbers bear more scrutiny.The only reason the official rate hasn't exceeded 10% yet is the large amount of people who drop out by not actively seeking work in the prior 4 week period.
It's interesting to go the BLS website and review the scenarios in which people are considered as employed.An example would be the wife of a small business owner who works at least 15 hours a week even if it's unpaid.She is counted as employed.Not to mention,these are merely telephone interviews in which the results are based on the homeowner responses.It's a relatively small sampling of the labor force and at least in my case,I don't know anyone ever interviewed.How accurate can this be?
During the Clinton era,the sampling number was dropped to 50,000 households and inner-city sampling was strictly limited.Yet magically,after he left office the number was restored to 60,000.Coincidence I'm sure.
We hear everyday that the stimulus is working,jobs are being saved,the stock market is soaring,etc.When you look between the lines and study other data,it doesn't support much optimism.So,I would suggest taking these "official" numbers with a grain of salt.More to come...
The survey is based on a sample process that breaks down households from larger metropolitan areas down to blocks of 4 households.They conduct the telephone interviews for 4 consecutive months,off for 8 months,and then it's repeated.The idea is survey 50% of the households with-in a 2 year period.It's usually conducted during the week of the month with the 12th day in it.
There are about 1,500 employees that conduct these surveys using publicly available address databases and other sources such as building permits.There are approx. 115 million households in the U.S. and surveying 60,000 is only about .05%.There are about 154 million in the labor force with another 80 million meeting the age minimum of 15 years old who aren't in the labor force for various reasons.
Here's my problem.I'm 44 years old and been a homeowner for 20 years.I've never been contacted for this survey.I took a survey of my own and found that no one I know has ever been surveyed either.I wonder about those of you out there.Do you find similar results?
For those that pay attention to these numbers,many feel they are artificially low.The BLS does publish it's alternative measure tables and more people are paying attention to the U-6 measure which includes marginally attached workers to get a more accurate sense of the true unemployment rate.
As we see the reports of new claims filed each week exceeding half a million,these numbers bear more scrutiny.The only reason the official rate hasn't exceeded 10% yet is the large amount of people who drop out by not actively seeking work in the prior 4 week period.
It's interesting to go the BLS website and review the scenarios in which people are considered as employed.An example would be the wife of a small business owner who works at least 15 hours a week even if it's unpaid.She is counted as employed.Not to mention,these are merely telephone interviews in which the results are based on the homeowner responses.It's a relatively small sampling of the labor force and at least in my case,I don't know anyone ever interviewed.How accurate can this be?
During the Clinton era,the sampling number was dropped to 50,000 households and inner-city sampling was strictly limited.Yet magically,after he left office the number was restored to 60,000.Coincidence I'm sure.
We hear everyday that the stimulus is working,jobs are being saved,the stock market is soaring,etc.When you look between the lines and study other data,it doesn't support much optimism.So,I would suggest taking these "official" numbers with a grain of salt.More to come...
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Warren Bank obituary
It's the usual weekend-miss the news cycle-bank takeover announcements and this time around they hit home turf.Warren Bank has fallen victim to their bad investments and now the taxpayers are on the hook for $275 million to bail them out.They will now become Huntington National Bank.
Lots of smiles around to see Obama finally take one right on the jaw.And Oprah to boot?I'm not sure how he's going to blame this on Bush.One thing is for sure.This is his first rodeo and he won't see an 8 count.I wonder what else he'll find time for to deflect attention?I hear the Loyal Order of Water Buffaloes are having a fundraiser.Maybe Fred and Barney would even shoot 18 with Obama.
Poor Michael Moore.He hates capitalism.His new film gives him reason why as he failed at it.With a $1.5 million opening night,he was nearly $8 million behind "zombieland" and more than doubled by the sure to be classic "cloudy with a chance of meatballs".Is he donating those evil profits to a worthy cause?
How fitting that our state budget fiasco will play out on Halloween.Will they all don costumes for the fright show?Maybe hand out iou's instead of candy?I hope to see Jenny take her position overseeing all from inside the Great Pumpkin.More to come...
Lots of smiles around to see Obama finally take one right on the jaw.And Oprah to boot?I'm not sure how he's going to blame this on Bush.One thing is for sure.This is his first rodeo and he won't see an 8 count.I wonder what else he'll find time for to deflect attention?I hear the Loyal Order of Water Buffaloes are having a fundraiser.Maybe Fred and Barney would even shoot 18 with Obama.
Poor Michael Moore.He hates capitalism.His new film gives him reason why as he failed at it.With a $1.5 million opening night,he was nearly $8 million behind "zombieland" and more than doubled by the sure to be classic "cloudy with a chance of meatballs".Is he donating those evil profits to a worthy cause?
How fitting that our state budget fiasco will play out on Halloween.Will they all don costumes for the fright show?Maybe hand out iou's instead of candy?I hope to see Jenny take her position overseeing all from inside the Great Pumpkin.More to come...
Friday, October 2, 2009
Tell us how you really feel
Let's see,Joe Wilson speaks up and he's rebuked.Alan Grayson speaks up and Nancy Pelosi says we should all apologize.Huh?
I do know this.Since Joe Wilson spoke up,he's taken in over $2 million in contributions.If I were him I would make the following statement.
#@*$fu!^&gd)%+sob~(>'}?*!!!!!!!!!
I mean,if speaking the truth got him over $2 million,just think what a good,full blown curse out would fetch!More to come...
I do know this.Since Joe Wilson spoke up,he's taken in over $2 million in contributions.If I were him I would make the following statement.
#@*$fu!^&gd)%+sob~(>'}?*!!!!!!!!!
I mean,if speaking the truth got him over $2 million,just think what a good,full blown curse out would fetch!More to come...
2-5-2010 Why?
This is the date on which the Labor Dept. will make a slight correction of the benchmark they use when determining the unemployment number.Current projections indicate there may have been 824,000 more jobs lost than were reported.Oops!Here is the text from the bureau.
Preliminary Estimates of Benchmark Revisions to the Establishment Survey
In accordance with usual practice, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
is announcing its preliminary estimates of the upcoming annual benchmark
revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final bench-
mark revision will be issued on February 5, 2010, with the publication
of the January 2010 Employment Situation news release.
Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment
estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the
month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insur-
ance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For
national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the
last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of
total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark
revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm
employment of 824,000 (0.6 percent).
Here are the month by month blows since the Obama regime took over.And remember,it was just Sept. 24th when Joe Biden stated to the nations Governors that the success of the stimulus exceeded his wildest imagination.
Mar: 652,000
Apr: 519,000
May: 303,000
June: 463,000
July: 304,000
Aug: 201,000 (preliminary)
Sept: 263,000 (preliminary)
Total: 2,705,000
Thank God for the 1 million jobs Obama claimed his stimulus has saved.More to come...
Preliminary Estimates of Benchmark Revisions to the Establishment Survey
In accordance with usual practice, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
is announcing its preliminary estimates of the upcoming annual benchmark
revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final bench-
mark revision will be issued on February 5, 2010, with the publication
of the January 2010 Employment Situation news release.
Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment
estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the
month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insur-
ance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For
national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the
last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of
total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark
revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm
employment of 824,000 (0.6 percent).
Here are the month by month blows since the Obama regime took over.And remember,it was just Sept. 24th when Joe Biden stated to the nations Governors that the success of the stimulus exceeded his wildest imagination.
Mar: 652,000
Apr: 519,000
May: 303,000
June: 463,000
July: 304,000
Aug: 201,000 (preliminary)
Sept: 263,000 (preliminary)
Total: 2,705,000
Thank God for the 1 million jobs Obama claimed his stimulus has saved.More to come...
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Shut Down '09!
No time warp back to 2007.It's the 2009 version with the same players fighting the same battles only even more fiercely divided.No lessons learned from 2007.They did manage to cut the shutdown in half this time from 4 hours to 2 before Granholm signed the 30 day extension.She also lied on her threat to layoff all non-essential state employees if she wasn't sent a balanced budget.Anyone surprised?
Perhaps this will be comparable to the U.S. Congress taking their August recess in the midst of the healthcare debate.Maybe our lawmakers should hold a few contentious townhalls in this 30 day reprieve and find out the mood of the taxpayers before they decide to raise taxes to balance the budget.
Our state has been in a depression longer than any other.Raising taxes to attempt to keep the status quo is folly with our bleak economy.Yet Granholm will still pay off her cronies with MSP-HQ debacle.I would absolutely love to buy a nicer house with home values so depressed,but my budget tells me to stay put.So I live with-in that budget and only make necessary purchases.
Will the cuts be painful?Sure for the thousands that have come to depend on government to be their primary provider.But when revenues are down,spending must follow suit.My job pays partial commission and has dropped accordingly with the economy.Should I use my credit card to maintain the same standard of living?Of course not,not if I don't want to simply delay the pain of having to cut back.Not to mention that delay in buying time charges interest.
The Promise scholarship program is great if you can afford it.Perhaps we should use that funding to send the Michigan legislature and our Governor to a few classes on fiscal responsibility.More to come...
Perhaps this will be comparable to the U.S. Congress taking their August recess in the midst of the healthcare debate.Maybe our lawmakers should hold a few contentious townhalls in this 30 day reprieve and find out the mood of the taxpayers before they decide to raise taxes to balance the budget.
Our state has been in a depression longer than any other.Raising taxes to attempt to keep the status quo is folly with our bleak economy.Yet Granholm will still pay off her cronies with MSP-HQ debacle.I would absolutely love to buy a nicer house with home values so depressed,but my budget tells me to stay put.So I live with-in that budget and only make necessary purchases.
Will the cuts be painful?Sure for the thousands that have come to depend on government to be their primary provider.But when revenues are down,spending must follow suit.My job pays partial commission and has dropped accordingly with the economy.Should I use my credit card to maintain the same standard of living?Of course not,not if I don't want to simply delay the pain of having to cut back.Not to mention that delay in buying time charges interest.
The Promise scholarship program is great if you can afford it.Perhaps we should use that funding to send the Michigan legislature and our Governor to a few classes on fiscal responsibility.More to come...
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